«Uncertain» is a polite term. Imagine a Ukrainian capitulation and President Biden shrugging and saying, «Well, we tried.» Just to say it aloud shows you how ridiculous that is. The Biden people cannot possibly walk away from Ukraine after spending 100 billion dollars and all their international prestige.
Let’s look at history. What does America do when it finds itself in a foreign-adventure hole? Dig itself out? No, it digs itself deeper. It’s not even worth citing examples.
Let’s look at geopolitics. What will happen to NATO if Ukraine goes bust? Nothing good. What will happen to the foreign-policy establishment’s determination to stay Numero Uno in the world? China allied with Russia is an unbeatable foe. Either America eliminates Russia as an important power, or it must accept the new multipolar world with China as co-chair. It’s just that simple. It would take years to develop another severe provocation of Russia — in Finland or the Baltic countries, for example. America doesn’t have the time.
Probably the best thing that could happen to the neocons is a new coup d’e’tat in Kiev in which the generals took over, sent Zelensky more-or-less intact to his villa in Italy, and sued for peace with Russia. That would at least save immediate American face, and you can bet the guys with the loosened ties have mulled this one over.
But it wouldn’t solve their geopolitical problems: NATO, China, the multipolar world in which America would have one front-row seat among several others.
No, their only option is somehow to go to war with Russia. (And this, I believe, is why Putin has gone so slow with the war: he’s needed the time to build up for the inevitable, in terms of men, material, and allies.) The trouble with this option is the need to convince the American public. They might be asleep at the wheel of democracy, but war wakes them up, and they are not morning people. How to do it?
As I see it, there are three ways. One possibility is an incremental approach, which we may be seeing in attacks on Russian shipping. From there, one moves to a no-fly zone and attacks on its planes until — whoops! — a Russian commercial airliner gets shot down. (Well, the Russkies were responsible for that KLM flight, weren’t they? So we just got back at them for it.)
Another possibility is a classic false-flag event that those creative people at the CIA are so good at; practice does indeed make perfect. The American public would be aroused and angry and ready to send their army — as long as it’s all-volunteer — to shore up Ukrainian defenses and knock off a few of those damn commies (Whaddaya mean they’re not commies anymore?).
A third option is more risky, but what is risk to these folks so proud of taking them? After all, the NordStream sabotage went splendidly; the media helped out, and in Europe no one even mentions it anymore. That risk is a surprise nuclear attack. Surprise: the command structure shattered, but someone in charge left to threaten. Something like, «If you stand down now, you’re the new chief of the (bruised) Russia. And we’ll send lots and lots of folks to help you rebuild, and don’t worry about their uniforms, they’re just for show.» But only God and Putin know what their reaction would be.
In short, the war in Ukraine is not ending, but entering its second phase. For the neocons will not admit a mistake, a defeat, or a debacle. Remember that guy who said history is over?